Research & data studies

What the 80th event mechanically triggers, the measured pace of event accrual (60 → 72 → 78 deaths), every dated catalyst since 2024 with its actual day-of and +5d stock reaction, and the documented bull/bear facts. Primary sources cited.

1,752 readouts with real stock returns. Median move 3.8%; 57% land within ±5%, but 7.6% crash 30%+. And the third proof that there is no systematic run-up.

FINRA short interest, point-in-time, matched to 1,753 FDA decisions. The most-shorted names move 3× more, and it’s entirely a market-cap artifact. We publish the debunk, not the headline.

How presenting biotechs actually traded into the meeting: median move D-30→D-1 by market-cap tier, with n and quartiles. 256 presentations, 2022-2026.

Mean price path into FDA decisions, T-120→T+5, by year: 1,754 events, plus current in-flight names.

Decision-day move & run-up by size tier (cohort study).