Daily close, T-120 (4/10/25) through T+5. Run-up high $898.95 on 5/6/25, low $625.65 on 8/11/25 (T-120 to T-1). FDA decision 9/25/25. Historical price action, not a forecast.
Positioning before the decision
On Oct 13, 2025, 14 days before the decision date, at-the-money options priced a move of ±7.9% through Oct 31, 2025 (the first listed expiry after the decision; ATM implied volatility 45%). The stock closed +0.1% at the first close across the decision and +4.5% five trading days on. A straddle priced weeks out covers ordinary movement plus the event, so this is the move the options market priced through that expiry, not the event-implied move alone. How this compares across 1,000+ decisions.
Decision facts
FDA decision date2025-09-25
DrugInluriyo (imlunestrant)
IndicationER+, HER2-, ESR1-mutated advanced or metastatic breast cancer
Yes. The FDA approved the application for Inluriyo (imlunestrant) on September 25, 2025. The primary source is linked on this page.
What was Inluriyo (imlunestrant) under FDA review for?
The application covered ER+, HER2-, ESR1-mutated advanced or metastatic breast cancer. The FDA approved the application on September 25, 2025.
How did LLY stock react to the FDA decision?
On the decision day LLY moved -3.7%. That is the recorded reaction to this specific event -- historical measurement, not a prediction, and not investment advice.