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FBIO FDA Decision CRL · 2025-10-01

Rebuilt daily·next FDA decision on the calendar
CMC/Manufacturing CRL, cGMP deficiencies at the CUTX-101 (Menkes disease) manufacturing facility; no efficacy or safety deficiencies cited.

Price into the decision (T-120)

PDUFA 10/1/25$4$1.414/16/25
Daily close, T-120 (4/16/25) through T+5. Run-up high $4 on 9/22/25, low $1.41 on 4/17/25 (T-120 to T-1). FDA decision 10/1/25. Historical price action, not a forecast.
Positioning before the decision
On Sep 17, 2025, 14 days before the decision date, at-the-money options priced a move of ±38.6% through Oct 17, 2025 (the first listed expiry after the decision; ATM implied volatility 210%). The stock closed -30.8% at the first close across the decision and -17.6% five trading days on. A straddle priced weeks out covers ordinary movement plus the event, so this is the move the options market priced through that expiry, not the event-implied move alone. How this compares across 1,000+ decisions.

Decision facts

FDA decision date2025-10-01
Outcome✗ CRL✓ source-verified
Decision-day move-30.8%
T-120 run-up (low→high)+112.0% ($1.71→$4.0)
CRL reasonCMC/Manufacturing, cGMP deficiencies at the CUTX-101 (Menkes disease) manufacturing facility; no efficacy or safety deficiencies cited.
ValidationOutcome consistent with price; primary-source verification in progress.
Market-cap tierSmall
Cohort decision-day move (history)3.6% median (n=280)

Cohort move is the historical median absolute decision-day move for this market-cap tier across our run-up study. History, not a prediction.

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Questions

Was ZYCUBO approved by the FDA?

Not in this review cycle. On October 1, 2025 the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter, declining to approve the application for ZYCUBO in its current form. A CRL is not final; the primary source is linked on this page.

How did FBIO stock react to the FDA decision?

On the decision day FBIO moved -30.8%. That is the recorded reaction to this specific event -- historical measurement, not a prediction, and not investment advice.