Unverified record. The outcome below was inferred from the share-price reaction around this date. Nobody has confirmed it against an FDA, SEC or company document, and it may be wrong: we have published at least one inferred outcome that turned out to be impossible (see corrections). Treat it as a price observation, not as a regulatory fact. Verified decisions on this site always link a primary source.
Daily close, T-120 (6/19/25) through T+5. Run-up high $50.96 on 12/3/25, low $42.6 on 10/30/25 (T-120 to T-1). FDA decision 12/4/25. Historical price action, not a forecast.
Positioning before the decision
On Nov 20, 2025, 14 days before the decision date, at-the-money options priced a move of ±7.1% through Dec 5, 2025 (the first listed expiry after the decision; ATM implied volatility 44%). The stock closed +1.9% at the first close across the decision and +0.5% five trading days on. A straddle priced weeks out covers ordinary movement plus the event, so this is the move the options market priced through that expiry, not the event-implied move alone. How this compares across 1,000+ decisions.
Decision facts
FDA decision date2025-12-04
OutcomeUnconfirmed · price consistent with approval~ price-only (validating)
Decision-day move+1.9%
T-120 run-up (low→high)+15.0% ($42.6→$52.15)
ValidationOutcome consistent with price; primary-source verification in progress.
Market-cap tierLarge
Cohort decision-day move (history)1.0% median (n=835)
Cohort move is the historical median absolute decision-day move for this market-cap tier across our run-up study. History, not a prediction.